hello, my name is rich and i'm a mike pelfrey fan

the one thing i've learned from watching baseball is that no two paths to success are the same. mark prior was a great college pitcher and a top prospect in the cubs minor leagues. when he first came up he was truly amazing and people could imagine him winning multiple cy young awards. now it's hard to imagine that he'll even come back to win multiple games. jaime moyer didn't find true success until he was in his thirties and even though he stinks at age 45, his numbers are still probably better than the mike pelfrey's.

the point is that you never know where you're going to strike gold and more importantly, when. mike pelfrey was the mets first round draft pick about three years ago. he was picked number 9 overall, but was widely considered the best pitcher in the draft after establishing himself as a great college pitcher at wichita state. he was even considered as the 1st pick overall but was deemed too expensive to sign as a scott boras client.

in his first full season as a pro, pelfrey rose up the ranks quickly posting very impressive numbers (including era, ks and whip). however, as soon as he reached the major league club, he consistently posted numbers in the high 5's in era and his strikeout rate dropped by probably around 33%. He would be sent back and forth between the mets and triple a for the last couple of years, always putting up decent numbers in the minors but terrible numbers in the minors.

to make it worse, he wasn't even putting up incredible numbers in the minors anymore and his strikeout rate considerably dropped there as well.

the question is then obvious: why would i continue to be a mike pelfrey fan. mike pelfrey obviously has skill or at least once had skill, relative to his age and peer group. has he suddenly lost his skill? probably not. but what worked in the low level minors is not as productive when facing the best hitters in the world.

his arsenal consists of a four seamer, a sinker, a changeup, and a slider. he used to have a curve-ball that was scratched due to the organizational philosophy that favors sliders and changeups. his four seamer is marked at 93-95 and his 90 mpg sinker has good late movement. his changeup doesn't have much movement and certainly does not change things up much as it's usually marked at 85. his slider is wildly ineffective and leads to past balls and wild pitches. his achilles heel if you were to pick one is his inability to throw an out pitch to a left handed bat. his sinker drifts to the middle of the plate and he has little accuracy inside to lefties. and with inconsistent command and control, he's certainly a work in progress.

so we go back to the question at hand: why are you still a mike pelfrey fan? i'm a fan b/c of everything i just mentioned.... his fastball has life, his sinker has movement, his slider is new and developing and his changeup is capable of neutralizing lefties if he's able to spot it on the outside corner with some regularity. the problem is that it's hard to find pelfrey on a day where all these things are working in unison (somewhat like the problem that faces the mets in general).

stuff is like height in basketball or speed in football, it's a talent in itself. mike pelfrey is 6'7" and his mechanics are always a struggle for him. i was once told that taller pitchers take a longer time to get their mechanics in order, to the point that it becomes easily repeatable (same arm slot). i was also told that the sinker is the best pitch in baseball, in terms of effectiveness, limiting home runs, keeping pitch counts low, getting double plays, and in injuries to arms). pelfrey is still only 24 years old and he is only two years removed from being one of baseball america's top 20 prospects in the game.

he's shown brilliance at times and you have to think that as he matures, his bad outings will decrease and he'll learn to become more effective even when his stuff isn't there. or maybe i'm just biased.